Federal Budget 2026 and the NDIS
Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers the 2026-27 Federal Budget on Tuesday 12 May at 7:30pm AEST. The NDIS is expected to be the budget’s single biggest source of savings. Here is what we know now, and what we are watching for on budget night.
Until Treasurer Chalmers begins the Budget Speech
Why This Budget Matters for NDIS Participants
The 2026-27 Federal Budget is shaping up to be the most consequential budget for the NDIS since the scheme launched in 2013. After Minister Mark Butler used his 22 April 2026 National Press Club address to announce a sweeping overhaul of the scheme, the budget is expected to formalise those changes with hard dollar figures, forward estimates, and implementation timelines.
For the 761,442 Australians currently receiving NDIS support, and for the families, providers, and plan managers who work alongside them, the budget will turn announcements into legislation. Every line item matters.
This page summarises what we already know, what we are expecting on Tuesday night, and what each measure could mean for your plan. We will update this page within 90 minutes of the Treasurer’s speech with the verified numbers and what they mean for participants.
What Has Already Been Announced
Most of the headline NDIS measures were unveiled in advance of budget night. Here is the picture as it stands today, drawn from Minister Butler’s 22 April Press Club speech and government press releases:
$25 to $35 billion in savings over 4 years
The NDIS is expected to be the single biggest source of savings in the 2026-27 budget. Estimates of $170 billion in savings over the decade have been reported. Annual scheme cost growth will be wound back from around 10% per year to 2% over the next four years.
160,000 fewer participants by 2030
The government is targeting a reduction from 761,442 active participants today to around 600,000 by the end of the decade. Eligibility will move from diagnosis-based access to standardised functional assessments. Reassessments of existing participants begin January 2028.
Average plan back to 2023 levels
The average annual plan is set to fall from around $31,000 today to $26,000, a $5,000 reduction over the next two years. The cuts focus mainly on social and community participation funding, which has tripled in five years. Core supports such as personal care, daily living, transport, and accommodation are protected.
Move to a commissioned panel from 1 October 2027
The government will commission a panel of approved plan management providers, replacing the current open market with a shortlist of accountable, quality providers. Spending on third-party intermediaries (plan managers, support coordinators) will be cut by 30%. Support coordination follows a similar model from 1 July 2028.
Mandatory registration expanding
From 1 July 2026, mandatory registration will expand to cover personal care, daily living supports, and supports delivered in closed settings. Currently around 93% of NDIS providers are unregistered. The change is designed to give the NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission visibility over more of the workforce.
Social and community participation cuts
From 1 October 2026, social, civic and community participation supports and capacity building daily activities will be progressively reduced. Spending in this stream tripled to $12 billion in five years and will be reset back to last year’s levels.
New Framework Plans from 1 April 2027
The new plan structure (replacing Core, Capacity Building and Capital with a Flexible Budget plus Stated Supports) has been delayed from July 2026 to 1 April 2027. The PACE computer system rollout continues in parallel.
$200 million Inclusive Communities Fund
The government has committed $200 million to a new Inclusive Communities Fund supporting mainstream and disability organisations. This is the one new spending measure in an otherwise savings-focused package.
Sources: Minister Butler’s 22 April 2026 Press Club address, Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, The Conversation, InDaily, and government press releases. Figures may be revised in the budget.
For the full breakdown of the April 2026 announcement, see our detailed guide on the April 2026 NDIS reforms. For operational changes already starting in July, see NDIS changes from July 2026.
What We Are Watching For on Budget Night
Most NDIS measures have been pre-announced. The budget will tell us the hard numbers, the timing details, and any new measures the government has held back. These are the eight things we will be looking for in the budget papers:
- Forward estimates by year. The budget will show NDIS spending for 2026-27 and the following three years. We will be checking how the savings ramp up and whether the targets look achievable.
- Plan management commissioning details. Who decides the panel of approved plan managers? What criteria will providers need to meet? How will participants choose from the shortlist? These details remain unclear and the budget papers may include them.
- Funding for the NDIA and Quality and Safeguards Commission. Tighter rules require more staff to enforce. Watch for operational funding increases for both agencies.
- Cost of the new functional assessment system. Replacing diagnosis-based eligibility with the I-CAN v6 functional assessment tool requires a major procurement. The budget may show how much is being spent on it and over what timeframe.
- Inclusive Communities Fund allocation timing. $200 million was announced. We will be checking when the money flows and whether disability organisations have a clear path to apply.
- Implementation costs for the digital payments system. All providers will be required to enrol in a digital payment system. The cost of building and rolling out that system will be in the budget.
- Exact savings from social and community participation cuts. Butler said spending would be reset to last year’s levels. The budget will show the actual dollar figure being removed and how it phases in from 1 October 2026.
- Any unannounced measures. Governments often hold back at least one significant measure to announce on the night. Watch for surprises that affect specific groups (children with developmental delay, autism level 2/3 participants, regional and remote participants).
What This Means for Plan Management
The biggest single change for plan-managed participants is the move to a commissioned panel model from 1 October 2027. From that date, you will choose a plan manager from a government-approved shortlist rather than from the open market.
The reform is squarely aimed at what Minister Butler described as “low-quality third-party intermediaries”. The goal is to weed out plan managers who are unregistered, slow to pay providers, or contributing to fraud. Spending on plan management and support coordination combined will be cut by 30 per cent.
For participants already with a registered, compliant plan manager who pays on time and runs a transparent operation, this is largely good news. For participants whose current plan manager may not make the panel, the transition could be disruptive.
Where Dedicated Plan Management sits
Dedicated Plan Management has been built from the ground up to meet the standards the reforms are introducing:
- Registered NDIS provider #4050163721, with full Quality and Safeguards Commission oversight
- 5.0-star Google rating with verified participant reviews
- Provider invoices paid within 24 to 48 hours, every time
- Australian-owned, family-run, based in Brisbane
- Real account managers, not call centres. You speak to the same person every time.
- Transparent monthly budget statements, no hidden fees
The government has not yet published panel selection criteria. We are confident DPM meets the standards being signalled and will keep participants informed as criteria are released.
What Participants Should Do Right Now
Most of the changes do not start until late 2026 or 2027, and existing eligibility will not be reassessed until January 2028. There is no need to panic. Three sensible steps to take in the next few weeks:
1. Read the budget update on Wednesday morning
We will update this page within 90 minutes of the Treasurer’s speech with verified numbers and what each measure means for participants. Check back Wednesday morning for the full picture.
2. Check whether your plan manager is registered
From 1 October 2027 only government-approved plan managers will be available. Ask your current plan manager if they are a registered NDIS provider, and how they plan to qualify for the panel. If you are looking to switch, our guide to changing your NDIS plan manager walks you through the process.
3. Keep good records
With tighter audit rules and a new digital payments system coming, it pays to make sure your invoices, service agreements, and quote documentation are all filed and traceable. A good plan manager already does this for you.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026-27 Federal Budget delivered?
Will my NDIS plan be cut?
Will I lose access to the NDIS?
What is happening to plan management?
Should I switch plan managers now?
Where can I read the budget papers?
Want a Plan Manager Built for the New Standards?
Dedicated Plan Management is a registered NDIS provider that already meets the quality standards being introduced. If you are looking for a plan manager that is well-placed for the new commissioned panel model, we would love to chat.